Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.329 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.305 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.302 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.296 — Maikel Franco batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.295 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.295 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.292 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.289 — Nick Williams batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.284 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.284 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Brian Johnson.
0.283 — Justin Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Jed Lowrie batting against Clayton Richard.

Matt Kemp comes off a five hit night, so he’s a little hot. Kemp is 3 for 9 career against Nova with no strikeouts and no walks. Alex Cobb gives up so many hits, I had to remove a number of Phillies pitchers from the list.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.321, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.304, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.332, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.736 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.731 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.329, 0.723 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.295, 0.721 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.280, 0.718 — Scooter Gennett batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.281, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.288, 0.714 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.284, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.296, 0.713 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.290, 0.710 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.280, 0.709 — Avisail Garcia batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.280, 0.708 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285, 0.707 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.267, 0.703 — Eddie Rosario batting against Junior Guerra.
0.273, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.276, 0.701 — Jose Martinez batting against Zack Greinke.
0.292, 0.701 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.271, 0.701 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.

Altuve hits the top spot again, trading the third slot with Kemp. They are tied for the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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