Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
0.318 — Jon Jay batting against Eric Lauer.
0.313 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.309 — Eddie Rosario batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.305 — A.J. Pollock batting against Eric Lauer.
0.301 — Brandon Crawford batting against Luke Weaver.
0.299 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.298 — Nick Castellanos batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.296 — Buster Posey batting against Luke Weaver.
0.295 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Eric Lauer.
0.293 — Eric Hosmer batting against Shelby Miller.
0.286 — Jose Pirela batting against Shelby Miller.
0.282 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.282 — Ketel Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.280 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Travis Jankowski batting against Shelby Miller.
0.278 — J.R. Murphy batting against Eric Lauer.
0.278 — Brandon Belt batting against Luke Weaver.
0.276 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.275 — Starlin Castro batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.275 — Howie Kendrick batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.274 — Nick Hundley batting against Luke Weaver.
0.274 — Alen Hanson batting against Luke Weaver.

It looks like a good day to pick someone on the Diamondbacks against Eric Lauer.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.296, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.299, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.309, 0.728 — Eddie Rosario batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.313, 0.725 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.298, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.320, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
0.318, 0.714 — Jon Jay batting against Eric Lauer.
0.276, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.296, 0.708 — Buster Posey batting against Luke Weaver.
0.281, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.301, 0.704 — Brandon Crawford batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293, 0.704 — Eric Hosmer batting against Shelby Miller.
0.275, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.269, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Barria.
0.258, 0.695 — Adrian Beltre batting against Matt Boyd.
0.271, 0.695 — Adam Jones batting against Aaron Slegers.
0.305, 0.694 — A.J. Pollock batting against Eric Lauer.
0.253, 0.690 — Daniel Murphy batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.286, 0.690 — Jose Pirela batting against Shelby Miller.
0.268, 0.687 — Nick Markakis batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.247, 0.686 — Jose Martinez batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.266, 0.684 — Manny Machado batting against Aaron Slegers.
0.261, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.295, 0.683 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Eric Lauer.
0.280, 0.681 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzales.

Altuve managed a hit last night, but it was not until the tenth inning, as he ended up going 1 for 5. His small slump is not enough to knock him off the top spot. Note that Daniel Murphy, who has great three-year numbers, is starting to work his way back up the list. David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, and Andrelton Simmons are all tied for the consensus first pick. Peralta wins the tie breaker, since he came up first in the Log5 list.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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