Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.331 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.327 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.320 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288 — Juan Soto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.285 — Yasiel Puig batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.282 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.282 — Josh Reddick batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281 — Chris Taylor batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.279 — Wilmer Difo batting against Ivan Nova.

It looks like it could be a good day for the Nationals offense. Note that Puig is likely headed for the disabled list.

Altuve is 3 for 4 career against Montas.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.341, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.327, 0.750 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.331, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320, 0.735 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.299, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.294, 0.716 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.713 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.306, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.273, 0.710 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.306, 0.706 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.281, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.275, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.293, 0.702 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.278, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Minor.
0.299, 0.701 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.699 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.298, 0.697 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.254, 0.696 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chase Anderson.
0.279, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.270, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against CC Sabathia.
0.296, 0.692 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.271, 0.691 — Manny Machado batting against CC Sabathia.
0.276, 0.690 — Odubel Herrera batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280, 0.690 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.265, 0.690 — Adam Jones batting against Luis Cessa.

Altuve is the consensus first pick, with Kemp and Almora tied for second. Of course, Almora is usually benched when he’s rated highly by the NN.

Note that there are two double headers on Monday, the Yankees at the Orioles and the Phillies at the Mets. Be careful picking players from those games, make sure they are in the starting lineup against that particular pitcher.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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