Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.312 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake
0.311 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz
0.311 — Danny Valencia batting against Tom Milone
0.307 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea
0.304 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies
0.304 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz
0.295 — Josh Reddick batting against Tom Milone
0.295 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.294 — Ryan Braun batting against Gio Gonzalez
0.294 — Josh Harrison batting against Mike Leake

No one pitcher stands out today as poor. This is a list of batters who are good at collecting hits.

The NN top ten list:

0.291, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.292, 0.742 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.304, 0.733 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
0.307, 0.733 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea.
0.294, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Mike Leake.
0.255, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.312, 0.731 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake.
0.304, 0.729 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz.
0.311, 0.728 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.269, 0.725 — Jimmy Paredes batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

There is some overlap, but the more I run this, the more it’s clear the NN values Jose Altuve’s high hit averages (.304 this year, .301 weighted three year average) so much that the pitcher doesn’t really matter.

The NN with Park changes the list like this:

0.291, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.292, 0.705 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.255, 0.698 — Xander Bogaerts batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.307, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea.
0.294, 0.694 — Josh Harrison batting against Mike Leake.
0.304, 0.693 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
0.312, 0.693 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake.
0.269, 0.689 — Jimmy Paredes batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.311, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Tom Milone.
0.304, 0.688 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz.
0.259, 0.688 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Realmuto does worse the more complex the computation. Murphy and Nunez seem to be the consensus picks. As always, 25% of the time your best pick is not going to get a hit in the game. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29fgMsz