Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb
0.309 — Mike Trout batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.305 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.303 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Nick Pivetta
0.303 — Eddie Rosario batting against Josh Tomlin
0.301 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Alex Cobb
0.299 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Eddie Butler
0.290 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.290 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Eddie Butler
Friday is the best pitching day I’ve seen in a while, so some of the better hitters filter to the top. Mike Trout is starting to appear more despite his high walk rate, and Ryan Zimmerman’s great start to the season is making up for his two previous poor seasons.
The NN with Park produces this top ten list:
0.314, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.312, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.281, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.301, 0.723 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.305, 0.721 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290, 0.719 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.309, 0.716 — Mike Trout batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.283, 0.714 — Buster Posey batting against Scott Feldman.
0.288, 0.713 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Alex Cobb.
The NN knocks Trout down the list and Ryan Zimmerman off the list. Both systems agree that Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts have the best chance for a hit, although Murphy is way ahead of everyone else. Bogaerts does have the longest current hit streak at 14 games. As always, the best pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
At the other end of the spectrum, these are the cold hitters, the current streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2prBNYQ
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