Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.313 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright
0.311 — Manuel Pina batting against Adam Wainwright
0.310 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Braden Shipley
0.300 — Eric Thames batting against Adam Wainwright
0.298 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.298 — Jett Bandy batting against Adam Wainwright
0.297 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo
0.296 — Hernan Perez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.293 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Wilson
Milwaukee at St. Louis was rained out Wednesday night, so Adam Wainwright gives Luis Perdomo a run for his money today for pitcher most likely to give up a hit. The only batters on this list not facing one of those two are Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts. Yesterday, Murphy was the NN choice, Bogaerts was the consensus choice. Murphy did not get a hit while Bogaerts did, and Murphy’s 0 for 3 ended the NN streak at seven.
Here’s the list the NN with Park produces for Thursday:
0.302, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Braden Shipley.
0.310, 0.733 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.725 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Wilson.
0.297, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.282, 0.718 — Trea Turner batting against Braden Shipley.
0.313, 0.718 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.283, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Tyler Wilson.
0.298, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.278, 0.709 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tyler Wilson.
0.279, 0.707 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Andriese.
Tyler Wilson replace Wainwright as a popular pitcher to hit on this list. It’s not a pitcher, however, as Fenway has a huge Park Factor, producing a .247 three-year weighted hit average of .247 versus a league average of .224.
Murphy is once again head and shoulders above the pack in terms of probability of getting a hit, with Blackmon the consensus pick. Blackmon leads off, which gives him a higher chance of getting an extra PA in a game, which will raise his probability of getting a hit in a game. As always, the best hitter you can pick will likely fail 25% of the time.
Note that the actual longest streak in the majors right now belongs to Mike Trout, 16 games. Trout walks a lot, so even though he owns a high batting average, his hit average is not outstanding. I thought a much higher batting average from Trout would entail him cutting down on his strikeouts. He instead increased his BABIP to .417! With that kind of BABIP and his home run power, Trout would not need to cut his Ks down much to hit .400.
Here is the current list of players with the most consecutive plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pBcfHt
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