Changing Lineups

Via BBTF, David Schoenfield writes about the change at the top of the batting order:

The changing face of the leadoff hitter is a revolution that has long been called for by statistical analysts, stressing that getting on base is a more important factor in scoring runs than speed and the ability to steal bases. Some managers are finally willing to toss aside any notion of convention by putting these sluggers in the leadoff spot.

In the case of Schwarber, a very big-bodied slugger, he hit leadoff in 28 of the Cubs’ first 31 games entering Monday’s play. The three times he didn’t hit leadoff were games he didn’t start. Santana has hit leadoff in every Indians game, after doing so 85 times last year in a season in which he hit 34 home runs. The Orioles, who stole just 19 bases as a team in 2016, have lacked a conventional leadoff type for years. While manager Buck Showalter has used five different leadoff hitters in 2017, Smith, who has 21 career stolen bases in 11 seasons, hits leadoff when he starts. Royals manager Ned Yost hasn’t had the resolution to stick with Moustakas, using him three times in the leadoff spot, while moving him to the 2-hole of late. Some habits are hard to break.

Back in spring training, Cubs manager Joe Maddon explained why he loved the idea of Schwarber hitting leadoff in front of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. “There’s a pause there,” he said. “If you don’t want to pitch to him, the guys coming up behind are pretty interesting. It’s formidable, so it’s uncomfortable from the other side.”

The Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) recommended this for years. One of my favorite lineups is the 2012 Tigers, where the LAT wanted Prince Fielder leading off and Miguel Cabrera batting second. When teams use a power hitter at the top, it is a good idea to have a somewhat good OBP, low power hitter in the ninth hole.

After reading this article, I was happy to see the Marlins were using J.T. Realmuto in the lead-off slot tonight, with Dee Gordon batting ninth and the pitcher batting eighth. Right now, Realmuto is a much better option at the top of the order, and Gordon gives the team a second lead-off man when the lineup turns over. That’s something the LAT would like.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pwH25T