Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.320 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Boyd
0.312 — Austin Jackson batting against Matt Boyd
0.312 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.310 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.306 — Dee Gordon batting against Nick Pivetta
0.300 — Ryon Healy batting against Mike Leake
0.300 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dillon Gee
0.298 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker
0.296 — Gerardo Parra batting against Taijuan Walker
0.295 — Francisco Lindor batting against Matt Boyd
Hitters own a .317/.379/.504 slash line against Boyd this season. He pitches the early game, so keep an eye on the lineups to see who rests for Cleveland. I am a bit suprirsed to see Nelson near the top of the list against the Nationals, but that’s how good Murphy and Kendrick have accumulated hits this season. Trea Turner just missed the top ten.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.312, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.298, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.296, 0.738 — Gerardo Parra batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.320, 0.737 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.306, 0.734 — Dee Gordon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.285, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.310, 0.732 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.294, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.300, 0.728 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dillon Gee.
0.289, 0.722 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.312, 0.722 — Austin Jackson batting against Matt Boyd.
0.293, 0.722 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dillon Gee.
It’s a very similar list. Murphy is the consensus first pick with Ramirez the consensus second choice. Coors Field helps bring the Rockies hitters near the top of the list.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vwQkFP
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