Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Boyd
0.327 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman
0.320 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Boyd
0.315 — Johan Camargo batting against Robert Gsellman
0.313 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Moore
0.303 — Matt Kemp batting against Robert Gsellman
0.301 — Alex Presley batting against Dylan Covey
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.299 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd

Avisail Garcia will wind up posting a year very much out of line with the rest of his career. This was his seasonal age 26 season, and there was a switch in field management. What ever Rick Renteria or his staff did to help Garcia worked very well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Moore.
0.335, 0.751 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Boyd.
0.327, 0.747 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.301, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.320, 0.739 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Boyd.
0.282, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.313, 0.727 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.273, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.315, 0.723 — Johan Camargo batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.277, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jhoulys Chacin.

Altuve is back to the top of the NN list, but Garcia is the consensus first pick. Inciarte is the consensus second pick, and both the NN and Log5 methods point to Gsellman giving up hits.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Yasmani Grandal	28
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Logan Morrison	24
Allen Cordoba	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jorge Soler	22
Steven Souza	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Manny Machado	20
Taylor Featherston	19
A.J. Ellis	19
Mark Zagunis	18
John Jaso	17
Alex Mejia	17
Matt Wieters	16
Ronald Torreyes	16
Richard Urena	16
Cesar Puello	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Paul Janish	15
Joc Pederson	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Ryder Jones	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Miguel Montero	14
Tom Murphy	14
Stephen Drew	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Yan Gomes	13
Taylor Motter	13
Jett Bandy	13
Stuart Turner	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Ben Zobrist	12
Alex Bregman	12
Yadier Molina	12
Chris Taylor	12
Kaleb Cowart	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Buster Posey	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Carlos Sanchez	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Martin Prado	12
Jason Castro	12
Zach Granite	12
Javier Baez	11
Adam Rosales	11
Bruce Maxwell III	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Robbie Grossman	11
Timothy Beckham	11
Nomar Mazara	10
Rajai Davis	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Jacob Lamb	10
Jorge Polanco	10
Dustin Pedroia	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Anthony Santander	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Marcus Semien	10
Alejandro De Aza	10

Good luck!

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