Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.317 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.310 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.301 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.297 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.297 — Chris Taylor batting against Eric Lauer.
0.296 — Andrew Toles batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.291 — Adam C Eaton batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.291 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.289 — Matthew Adams batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.288 — Steve Pearce batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.287 — Yadier Molina batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.285 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Matt Kemp makes the All-Star team and the top of the Log5 list in the same week! Lauer allowed a .367 BABIP this year. Batted balls seem to find holes against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.741 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.344, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.277, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.734 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.287, 0.733 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.310, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.301, 0.718 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.305, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.261, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
0.297, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.714 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.289, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.298, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.712 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.268, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.290, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.261, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.285, 0.704 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.272, 0.703 — Avisail Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.258, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sean Manaea.
0.291, 0.703 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.703 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.276, 0.702 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.

Notice that batters against Lauer don’t appear as often on this list. The NN does a better job of filtering out pitchers with small sample sizes of data. J.D. Martinez and Kemp are tied for consensus first pick today. Martinez is 5 for 15 career against Gallardo with a double and two strikeouts.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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