Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.321 — Mookie Betts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318 — Gerardo Parra batting against Shelby Miller.
0.312 — Nolan Arenado batting against Shelby Miller.
0.308 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.307 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shelby Miller.
0.303 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller.
0.299 — Steve Pearce batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.297 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.293 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Shelby Miller.
0.292 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.291 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.289 — Trevor Story batting against Shelby Miller.
0.289 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.288 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.288 — David Dahl batting against Shelby Miller.
0.288 — Scooter Gennett batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.287 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.284 — Jon Jay batting against German Marquez.
0.284 — Kevan Smith batting against Luke Weaver.
0.284 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.

Colon gives up hits but not walks, so the good hitters on the Red Sox should be able to nick him. Colon does have days in which he is pretty unhittable, however. Martinez is 4 for 14 career against Colon.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.752 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.318, 0.738 — Gerardo Parra batting against Shelby Miller.
0.298, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.321, 0.736 — Mookie Betts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.307, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shelby Miller.
0.312, 0.731 — Nolan Arenado batting against Shelby Miller.
0.284, 0.729 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.303, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller.
0.308, 0.722 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.295, 0.719 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.288, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.297, 0.715 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.289, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.278, 0.714 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.288, 0.712 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.292, 0.711 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.278, 0.707 — Eddie Rosario batting against Burch Smith.
0.299, 0.707 — Steve Pearce batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.280, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.265, 0.704 — Daniel Murphy batting against Trevor Williams.
0.293, 0.702 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Shelby Miller.
0.271, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Barria.
0.284, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against German Marquez.
0.286, 0.700 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.288, 0.700 — David Dahl batting against Shelby Miller.

Altuve makes a big jump to second place in the NN, but Parra is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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