Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Adrian Beltre batting against Alex Cobb.
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fiers.
0.314 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Richard.
0.314 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.308 — Elvis Andrus batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Odubel Herrera batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.299 — Nomar Mazara batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Michael Fiers.
0.296 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295 — Miguel Andujar batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295 — Shin-Soo Choo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.292 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291 — Gleyber Torres batting against Shane Bieber.
0.290 — Adam C Eaton batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.290 — Javier Baez batting against Clayton Richard.
0.288 — Dee Gordon batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.288 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.287 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.285 — Ronald E Guzman batting against Alex Cobb.
0.285 — Yairo Munoz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.285 — Paul DeJong batting against Matt Harvey.
0.284 — Nick Castellanos batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.283 — Matt Kemp batting against Felix Pena.
0.283 — Maikel Franco batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

Beltre remains a good hitter at his advance age, while Cobb gives up a ton of hits this season. Beltre’s history against Cobb is poor, however, 1 for 13 with two walks and two strikeouts.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fiers.
0.313, 0.750 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.314, 0.744 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Richard.
0.314, 0.728 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.292, 0.726 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.299, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Michael Fiers.
0.320, 0.723 — Adrian Beltre batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288, 0.719 — Dee Gordon batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.288, 0.716 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.287, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.308, 0.713 — Elvis Andrus batting against Alex Cobb.
0.274, 0.711 — Gerardo Parra batting against Christian Bergman.
0.272, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.299, 0.710 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.273, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Christian Bergman.
0.269, 0.708 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Christian Bergman.
0.290, 0.708 — Javier Baez batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283, 0.706 — Matt Kemp batting against Felix Pena.
0.267, 0.706 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Bergman.
0.301, 0.705 — Odubel Herrera batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.296, 0.705 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.284, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.264, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Domingo German.
0.270, 0.700 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.290, 0.700 — Adam C Eaton batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.275, 0.700 — Starlin Castro batting against Jake Arrieta.

Altuve is the consensus first pick, Almora the consensus second pick. Note that Daniel Murphy is getting his hitting stroke back, and his strong three-year performance is starting to bring him to the top of the NN list.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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