Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.347 — Albert Almora batting against Eric Lauer.
0.323 — Javier Baez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.318 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Leake.
0.317 — Mookie Betts batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.316 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.313 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Leake.
0.312 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Leake.
0.308 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.299 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Leake.
0.298 — Jason Heyward batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Trevor Story batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.292 — Kris Bryant batting against Eric Lauer.
0.290 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.290 — Willson Contreras batting against Eric Lauer.
0.289 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.289 — Christian Yelich batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.287 — Scooter Gennett batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284 — Tommy La Stella batting against Eric Lauer.
0.284 — Steve Pearce batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.284 — Addison Russell batting against Eric Lauer.
0.284 — Ben Zobrist batting against Eric Lauer.
0.284 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.283 — Matt M Duffy batting against Fernando Romero.

Log5 likes the Cubs against Lauer and the Rockies against Leake.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.347, 0.756 — Albert Almora batting against Eric Lauer.
0.304, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.289, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.316, 0.740 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.318, 0.736 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Leake.
0.317, 0.736 — Mookie Betts batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.312, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Leake.
0.313, 0.731 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Leake.
0.308, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Leake.
0.323, 0.723 — Javier Baez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.287, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.283, 0.715 — Matt M Duffy batting against Fernando Romero.
0.273, 0.715 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.278, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.272, 0.709 — Michael Brantley batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.282, 0.708 — Avisail Garcia batting against Burch Smith.
0.299, 0.707 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Leake.
0.294, 0.707 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.282, 0.706 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.284, 0.705 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.275, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Enyel De Los Santos.
0.274, 0.703 — Wilson Ramos batting against Fernando Romero.
0.273, 0.700 — Matt Kemp batting against Deck Deck McGuire.
0.269, 0.698 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.295, 0.698 — Trevor Story batting against Mike Leake.
0.289, 0.694 — Christian Yelich batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.290, 0.694 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.262, 0.694 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.265, 0.694 — Nick Markakis batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.258, 0.694 — Jose Ramirez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

We will see if Joe Maddon bothers to play Almora today. He is the unanimous first pick, Parra is the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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