Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — J.D. Martinez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.319 — Scooter Gennett batting against Dylan Covey.
0.319 — Mookie Betts batting against Erick Fedde.
0.315 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313 — Jed Lowrie batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.307 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.306 — Avisail Garcia batting against Sal Romano.
0.306 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jose Urena.
0.304 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.297 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.295 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.294 — Jose Ramirez batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.294 — Kevan Smith batting against Sal Romano.
0.293 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Erick Fedde.
0.292 — Steve Pearce batting against Erick Fedde.
0.292 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291 — Francisco Lindor batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.288 — Jose Abreu batting against Sal Romano.
0.288 — Mitch Moreland batting against Erick Fedde.
0.286 — Brock Holt batting against Erick Fedde.
0.286 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Marcus Stroman.

Fedde this season allows contact with a low strikeout rate and a low walk rate. That should help the excellent hitters on the Red Sox. The game does start at 11 AM, something that shouldn’t phase Boston, since they play at that time on Patriot’s day every year.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.298, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.330, 0.742 — J.D. Martinez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.319, 0.742 — Scooter Gennett batting against Dylan Covey.
0.315, 0.734 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.306, 0.727 — Avisail Garcia batting against Sal Romano.
0.306, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jose Urena.
0.310, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.319, 0.723 — Mookie Betts batting against Erick Fedde.
0.270, 0.722 — Albert Almora batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.307, 0.722 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.304, 0.721 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.264, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
0.297, 0.718 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.295, 0.717 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313, 0.712 — Jed Lowrie batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294, 0.711 — Jose Ramirez batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.299, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.276, 0.708 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.282, 0.707 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Andriese.
0.290, 0.707 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.283, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.277, 0.705 — Matt Kemp batting against Clay W Holmes.
0.294, 0.702 — Kevan Smith batting against Sal Romano.
0.275, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jose Quintana.
0.258, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chase Anderson.
0.288, 0.700 — Jose Abreu batting against Sal Romano.

Altuve went hitless in his last two games, and only went hitless in three straight games once this season. J.D. Martinez is the consensus first pick, Gennett the consensus second pick. Altuve is 3 for 9 career against Minor with two walks and a hit by pitch, but no strikeouts.

Also note that since the Red Sox are in Washington, there is no DH, so Martinez may not play.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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