Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Eddie Rosario batting against Alex Cobb.
0.341 — Michael Brantley batting against Brett Anderson.
0.322 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.320 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.319 — Francisco Lindor batting against Brett Anderson.
0.307 — Matt M Duffy batting against Chris Flexen.
0.306 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.302 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.300 — Tyler Naquin batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Nick Castellanos batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.296 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chris Flexen.
0.294 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.293 — Mookie Betts batting against Jakob Junis.
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.291 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.290 — Joe Mauer batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.289 — Dee Gordon batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.288 — Mitch Garver batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287 — Jorge Polanco batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286 — Jon Jay batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286 — Jed Lowrie batting against Shane Bieber.
0.286 — Willians Astudillo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.285 — Jake Cave batting against Alex Cobb.
0.285 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Alex Wood.

I’m starting to think you should pick the best batter on the team facing the Orioles.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.753 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.341, 0.751 — Michael Brantley batting against Brett Anderson.
0.342, 0.745 — Eddie Rosario batting against Alex Cobb.
0.292, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.306, 0.735 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.320, 0.732 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.302, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.307, 0.725 — Matt M Duffy batting against Chris Flexen.
0.319, 0.722 — Francisco Lindor batting against Brett Anderson.
0.289, 0.717 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.293, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Jakob Junis.
0.296, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.289, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.296, 0.711 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chris Flexen.
0.291, 0.711 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.268, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jon Lester.
0.272, 0.707 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.280, 0.707 — Corey Dickerson batting against Drew Anderson.
0.278, 0.706 — Matt Kemp batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.279, 0.705 — Avisail Garcia batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.286, 0.705 — Jon Jay batting against Clayton Richard.
0.277, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tanner Roark.
0.274, 0.703 — Starlin Castro batting against Tanner Roark.
0.285, 0.702 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Alex Wood.
0.278, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.273, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Wade LeBlanc.

I’m surprised that Altuve did not come out on top against Giolito, given the starter’s high ERA and low strikeout rate. Giolito walks a ton of batters, however, so his hit average is low. He gives up a lot of home runs, and the walks make those home runs hurt.

Segura, Brantley, and Rosario are all tied for the consensus first pick. Segura is 0 for 2 against Senzatela with a K. Brantley is 4 for 10 against Anderson with a K. Rosario is 1 for 3 against Cobb with a walk.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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