Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.322 — Buster Posey batting against Tom Milone
0.315 — Avisail Garcia batting against Phil Hughes
0.310 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes
0.300 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.294 — Justin Turner batting against Chad Kuhl
0.294 — Ryan Braun batting against Kyle Kendrick
0.293 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chase Anderson
0.293 — Elvis Andrus batting against Luis Perdomo
0.291 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Tom Milone
0.288 — Leury Garcia batting against Phil Hughes
0.288 — Melky Cabrera batting against Phil Hughes
It’s not to see a list not dominated by batters against Luis Perdomo. Perdomo now owns a .259/.319/.329 slash line on the season, so it looks like he is improving and proving the Padres right for sticking with him.
Phil Hughes is another example of a pitcher who should get hit. He doesn’t walk batters, and uses his defense. Lots of times, however, ball sneak through the fielders. Posey’s hitting did not suffer after the concussion, as he is hitting .370 since his return.
The NN with Park produces this list:
0.285, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wade Miley.
0.322, 0.731 — Buster Posey batting against Tom Milone.
0.293, 0.726 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chase Anderson.
0.280, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Zach Eflin.
0.279, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.719 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes.
0.284, 0.718 — Mookie Betts batting against Chase Anderson.
0.300, 0.716 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.315, 0.713 — Avisail Garcia batting against Phil Hughes.
0.274, 0.713 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Boyd.
Murphy, who was not even close to the top ten using Log5, vaults to the top of this list. The NN demonstrates once again that the quality of the batter is more important than the quality of the starting pitcher for determining who which batters has a high probability of getting a hit in the game. Posey is the consensus pick, however. Your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the list of players with the longest current streak of plate appearances without a hit.
Danny Espinosa looks done. It seems the Nationals let him go at the right time.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2qYYNuP
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