Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Eric Hosmer batting against Bartolo Colon
0.343 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.340 — Melky Cabrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.340 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Bartolo Colon
0.338 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon
0.325 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.310 — Salvador Perez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ben Lively
0.304 — Josh Reddick batting against Kendall Graveman

Colon pitched better with the Twins than he did with the Braves, but he still allows a good number of hits. With the Braves, his opposition slash line came in at .338/.383/.562. With the Twins, it’s down to .300/.328/.514. Note that a high BA allowed with a low OBP allowed means a high hit average, which is what matters for hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.343, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.350, 0.753 — Eric Hosmer batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ben Lively.
0.340, 0.747 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.340, 0.746 — Melky Cabrera batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.338, 0.744 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296, 0.736 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.314, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.325, 0.726 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon.

Altuve and Hosmer are tied for consensus first pick. Hosmer is batting .400 so far in September, Altuve .267. If you like the hot hand, take Hosmer.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jayson Werth	23
Aaron Hill	23
Allen Cordoba	21
Jorge Soler	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Tommy La Stella	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Andrelton Simmons	18
Jake Marisnick	16
Luis Valbuena	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
A.J. Pollock	15
Paul Janish	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Yasmani Grandal	14
Luis Torrens	14
Matt Davidson	14
A.J. Ellis	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Tom Murphy	13
Stephen Drew	13
Corey Dickerson	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Alex Mejia	12
Jared Hoying	12
Josh Donaldson	12
Chase Utley	12
Martin Prado	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Hunter Pence	12
Andrew Romine	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Gavin Cecchini	11
Kaleb Cowart	11
Ryan McMahon	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Joc Pederson	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Kolten Wong	11
Carlos Moncrief	10
Miguel Montero	10
Taylor Motter	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Scott Schebler	10
Eric Sogard	10
Adam Duvall	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Mark Trumbo	10
Tyler Saladino	10
Tyler Collins	10
Jett Bandy	10
Thomas Pham	10
Efren Navarro Jr	10
Stuart Turner	10

Good luck!

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