Massive Tie Scenario

The five-way tie for the second wild card in the American League looked a little more likely coming out of Saturday’s games. The Mariners gained on all four teams ahead of them, as the Twins, Angels, Rangers and Orioles all lost. Three games now separate the five contenders.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning eight more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00024, the highest of the four days tracked:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	8-12
Angels	10-10
Rangers	11-10
Orioles	11-9
Mariners	11-9

The four-way tie in the NL for the Central Division title and the second wild card went perfectly on Saturday. The Brewers blew out the Cubs while the Cardinals and Rockies both won. That gives the Rockes and Cubs the same record with the Brewers and Cardinals three games back. The most wins for that to happen would be 89, but the most likely win total for this tie would be 86. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.0012. Here is the 86 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Cubs	9-11
Rockies	9-11
Brewers	12-8
Cardinals	12-8

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card buried in there, which would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Twins fall to the Royals.
• The Cardinals emerge victorious over the Pirates.
• The Brewers finish a series sweep of the Cubs.
• The Rangers defeat the Yankees.
• The Mariers win against the Angels
• The Rockies lose to the Dodgers.
• The Orioles end the Indians winning streak.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2jfmmR4