Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles
0.344 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles
0.340 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles
0.328 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles
0.310 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies
0.306 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Ian Desmond batting against Jordan Lyles
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez
0.298 — Raimel Tapia batting against Jordan Lyles
0.297 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel
0.297 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Anderson

Lyles was a poor reliever for the Rockies early in the season, and now he’s a poor starter for the Padres.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.349, 0.771 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.340, 0.763 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.344, 0.760 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.300, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.328, 0.744 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.310, 0.740 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies.
0.293, 0.732 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.297, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.286, 0.723 — Avisail Garcia batting against Myles Jaye.
0.306, 0.720 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.

There is very close agreement, with Blackmon the unanimous first choice and either LeMahieu or Parra second.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Yasmani Grandal	24
Corey Dickerson	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Allen Cordoba	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jorge Soler	22
Logan Morrison	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
A.J. Ellis	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Alex Mejia	17
Ronald Torreyes	16
Melky Cabrera	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
John Jaso	15
Charlie Blackmon	15
Paul Janish	15
Evan Gattis	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Miguel Montero	14
Tom Murphy	14
Cristhian Adames	14
John Hicks	14
Cameron Maybin	14
Gavin Cecchini	14
Stephen Drew	13
Cesar Puello	13
Stuart Turner	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Jose Bautista	13
Manny Machado	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Kaleb Cowart	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Matt Wieters	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Joc Pederson	12
Martin Prado	12
Zach Granite	12
Travis Shaw	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Matt Chapman	12
Scott Van Slyke	11
William Middlebrooks	11
Mitch Garver	11
Jett Bandy	11
Nolan Arenado	11
Drew Butera	11
Welington Castillo	11
Brian Dozier	11
Brock Stassi	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Ryan McMahon	11
Taylor Motter	11
Steven Souza	11
Ryder Jones	11
Jabari Blash	11
Derek Fisher	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Ian Happ	10
Rajai Davis	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Russell Martin	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Brock Holt	10
Ryan Braun	10
Sandy Leon	10
Hanley Ramirez	10

Good luck!

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