Massive Tie Scenarios

The five-way and three-way tie probabilities in the AL race for the second wild card improved a bit Friday night. The Royals ended the Indians win streak, for a win at the bottom, and the Blue Jays beat the Twins for a loss at the top. That brought the top five teams and the top three teams a bit closer together. The Mariners fell, however, which kept it from being a great night for the big ties.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning five more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00011:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	5-10
Angels	7-8
Mariners	8-6
Rangers	10-5
Royals	9-6

The Rangers and Royals are probably out of it. I’m now also tracking the three way tie among the Twins, Angels, and Mariners, and the probability of that stands at 0.011, or close to one percent.

The Cubs beat the Cardinals while the Brewers and Rockies won, so the gap widened in the NL race between top and bottom The most likely outcome has the Rockies and Cubs winning six more games for a total of 87. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.001. Here is the 87 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	6-8
Cubs	6-9
Brewers	9-6
Cardinals	10-5

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card and a three-way tie for the division buried in there. Each would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that. There is also the three-way tie between the Cubs, Rockies, and one of the trailing teams. That would require two days, first to settle the NL Central, then a day to determine the wild card.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Mariners beat the Astros.
• The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
• The Royals beat the Indians.
• The Twins lose to the Blue Jays.
• The Brewers emerge victorious against the Marlins.
• The Rockies fall to the Padres.
• The Angels and the Rangers can go either way. The Angels winning is better for the three-way tie.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wx1bex