Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.342 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.338 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Seth Lugo
0.335 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard
0.333 — Corey Seager batting against Jordan Lyles
0.333 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin
0.330 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin
0.329 — Justin Turner batting against Jordan Lyles
0.326 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.326 — Chris Taylor batting against Jordan Lyles
You can double down with Corey Seager today! There are two double headers on Saturday, the Mets at Houston as the city starts to work back toward normal, and the Dodgers at the Padres. Watch the lineups! Do to their big leads, neither the Dodgers nor the Astros need to play their regulars in both games. With the expanded rosters, they should have plenty of personnel.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.337, 0.774 — Jose Altuve batting against Seth Lugo.
0.320, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Harvey.
0.333, 0.767 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.330, 0.758 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.342, 0.753 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.318, 0.752 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.333, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.338, 0.742 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.326, 0.742 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.335, 0.739 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard.
The NN encourages you to double down on Altuve. Altuve against Lugo is the consensus first pick, wiht Corey Seager against Clayton Richard second. If you need to pick early, however, and can’t keep track of lineups, Blackmon and Parra do very well.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vAmUXj
No comments:
Post a Comment