Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.367 — Gerardo Parra batting against Steven Matz
0.355 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz
0.346 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz
0.340 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz
0.316 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey
0.313 — Starling Marte batting against Homer Bailey
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.310 — Adam Frazier batting against Homer Bailey
0.310 — Raimel Tapia batting against Steven Matz
0.310 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Homer Bailey
It’s a good day to bat for the Rockies or the Pirates. Matz allows a high batting average with few walks, batters hitting .308 against him with 11 walks in 47 1/3 innings. Bailey’s BA allowed is so high, .366, that his high number of walks stills gives him a high hit average.
If you look at the Rockies hitters over the last three seasons, you see why Parra comes out on top. All have high batting averages, but Parra walks the least.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.367, 0.777 — Gerardo Parra batting against Steven Matz.
0.355, 0.773 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.
0.346, 0.766 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.340, 0.753 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz.
0.297, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris O’Grady.
0.305, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Nick Martinez.
0.313, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Homer Bailey.
0.311, 0.725 — Didi Gregorius batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.316, 0.719 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey.
A similar list, with some of the usual leaders making their way into the top ten. The combination of a poor visiting pitcher against good hitters at Coors means it’s a good day to double down on Rockies batters.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tZDUpa
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