Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.338 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore
0.332 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vance Worley
0.330 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vance Worley
0.327 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo
0.326 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Moore
0.321 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.321 — Chris Taylor batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.319 — Jose Ramirez batting against Austin Pruitt
0.314 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd
You can tell that Perdomo is improving as a pitcher since he no longer dominates the Log5 results. The Nationals are playing a split double header today, so be careful choosing Murphy, as he almost always rests one game. Moore is listed as starting the night cap.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.320, 0.772 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.338, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore.
0.330, 0.759 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vance Worley.
0.332, 0.754 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vance Worley.
0.301, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton.
0.313, 0.742 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vance Worley.
0.321, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.326, 0.739 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Moore.
0.327, 0.738 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.319, 0.735 — Jose Ramirez batting against Austin Pruitt.
Altuve rises to the top of the NN list, but Murphy against Moore is the consensus first choice. Blackmon or Parra is the consensus second choice, if you are going to double down, and if you don’t want to risk Murphy on a double header day.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uCAu7Y
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