Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rafael Montero
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman
0.313 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach
0.308 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Rafael Montero
0.304 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ty Blach
0.304 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke
0.303 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ty Blach
0.302 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran
0.302 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Martin Perez
0.300 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Kevin Gausman

Gregorius leads the field on a day with a light schedule. With a .309 BA and a .332 OBP, Gregorius’s ability to get on base is due almost entirely to his ability to collect hits. That makes him a great batter to choose to extend a streak.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.323, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.302, 0.744 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran.
0.297, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Julio Teheran.
0.332, 0.741 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rafael Montero.
0.313, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach.
0.297, 0.735 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.284, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Julio Teheran.
0.294, 0.728 — Jose Ramirez batting against Doug Fister.
0.290, 0.727 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chad Bettis.

Over a three-year period, Altuve is better at collecting hits, and the NN moves him to the top of the list. Jean Segura is actually the consensus first pick, finishing second in both lists.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Bradley Zimmer	30
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Eduardo Escobar	21
Jesus Aguilar	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Lucas Duda	18
Kelby Tomlinson	18
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Matthew Szczur	18
Xander Bogaerts	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Joey Gallo	16
Greg Bird	15
Hyun Soo Kim	15
Allen Cordoba	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Paul Janish	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Drew	13
Cameron Rupp	13
Austin Hedges	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Ben Revere	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Gregor Blanco	13
Yasiel Puig	13
Yadier Molina	12
John Hicks	12
Martin Prado	12
Joc Pederson	12
Jose Bautista	12
Andrew Romine	12
Jarrett Parker	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Kevin Plawecki	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
A.J. Ellis	11
Jason Heyward	11
Salvador Perez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Brandon Guyer	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Chris Gimenez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kaleb Cowart	11
Andrelton Simmons	10
Adeiny Hechavarria	10
Tom Murphy	10
Carlos Sanchez	10
Ben Zobrist	10
Carlos Correa	10
Josh Reddick	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Zach Granite	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Wilson Ramos	10
Jabari Blash	10
Tyler Collins	10
Derek Fisher	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

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