Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.333 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon
0.331 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake
0.321 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Anthony Banda
0.310 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.306 — Tyler Naquin batting against Bartolo Colon
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.304 — Ryan Braun batting against Ivan Nova
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley

Whenever Colon pitches, Log5 lights up the opposing team, in this case, the Indians. Jose Ramirez is often near the top of the list anyway, and Colon moves him to the top. Colon did throw seven shutout innings against Milwaukee in his last start, allowing just five hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against Anthony Banda.
0.357, 0.761 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.331, 0.759 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake.
0.305, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.283, 0.738 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.288, 0.738 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.303, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley.
0.333, 0.729 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.321, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon.

For the third day in a row, Altuve comes out on top in the NN, but Ramirez is the consensus first pick. The Rockies hitters at home also move up quite a bit.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Bradley Zimmer	35
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Matthew Szczur	22
Eduardo Escobar	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jesus Aguilar	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Gregor Blanco	17
Tony John Wolters	16
Jose Bautista	16
Paul Janish	15
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Allen Cordoba	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Yasiel Puig	13
Stephen Drew	13
Jarrett Parker	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Brandon Crawford	13
Ben Revere	13
Andrew Romine	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Martin Prado	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Yadier Molina	12
Joc Pederson	12
Rafael Lopez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
Salvador Perez	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Mookie Betts	11
Brandon Guyer	11
A.J. Ellis	11
Kaleb Cowart	11
Chris Gimenez	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Abraham Almonte	11
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Juan Centeno	10
Andrelton Simmons	10
Alex Bregman	10
Adeiny Hechavarria	10
Tom Murphy	10
Logan Morrison	10
Ben Zobrist	10
Jabari Blash	10
Tyler Collins	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Carlos Correa	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Chad Pinder	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Maikel Franco	10
Mike Napoli	10
Didi Gregorius	10
Nolan Arenado	10
Carlos Sanchez	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Zach Granite	10
Khristopher Davis	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

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