Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rafael Montero
0.330 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Rafael Montero
0.324 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Rafael Montero
0.318 — Nolan Arenado batting against Rafael Montero
0.315 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Matt Boyd
0.314 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.313 — Trey Mancini batting against Matt Boyd
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell
0.300 — Jose Abreu batting against Rick Porcello
0.297 — Caleb Joseph batting against Matt Boyd
0.297 — Welington Castillo batting against Matt Boyd

Log5 likes the Rockies against Montero. Montero flies in the face of the idea that a high strikeout rate helps limit hits. Montero strikes out better than a batter per inning, but opponents hang a .369 BABIP on him, leading to a .306 BA allowed.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.344, 0.768 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rafael Montero.
0.305, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.330, 0.759 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.324, 0.756 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Rafael Montero.
0.314, 0.746 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.318, 0.742 — Nolan Arenado batting against Rafael Montero.
0.289, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.315, 0.729 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Matt Boyd.
0.313, 0.726 — Trey Mancini batting against Matt Boyd.
0.289, 0.721 — Buster Posey batting against Kendall Graveman.

Parra is the unanimous choice, and it might be a good day to double down on Parra and Blackmon.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
John Jaso	42
Michael Freeman	34
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Christopher Herrmann	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Trumbo	20
Rene Rivera	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	17
Tony John Wolters	16
Arismendy Alcantara	16
Paul DeJong	16
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Robinson Chirinos	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Wil Myers	14
Jonathan Villar	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Yan Gomes	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Dexter Fowler	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Ryan Zimmerman	13
Yangervis Solarte	13
Stephen Drew	13
Khristopher Davis	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	12
Benjamin Gamel	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Avisail Garcia	12
Joc Pederson	12
Luis Valbuena	12
Martin Prado	12
Sean Rodriguez	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Josh Harrison	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Eddie Rosario	11
Travis Shaw	11
Allen Cordoba	11
Neil Walker	11
Matt Wieters	11
Alex Presley	11
Hanley Ramirez	11
Mikie Mahtook	11
Jared W. Hoying	10
Tyler Collins	10
Jordan Luplow	10
J.D. Martinez	10
Chris Stewart	10
Tom Murphy	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jabari Blash	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Carlos Correa	10
Yoan Moncada	10
Jose Altuve	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Todd Frazier	10
Austin Barnes	10

Wow, Jose Altuve and Ryan Zimmerman make the list!

Good luck!

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