Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.353 — Elvis Andrus batting against Bartolo Colon
0.344 — Jose Altuve batting against Cesar Valdez
0.343 — Adrian Beltre batting against Bartolo Colon
0.319 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez
0.309 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez
0.306 — Eddie Rosario batting against Martin Perez
0.306 — Delino Deshields Jr. batting against Bartolo Colon
0.305 — Brett Nicholas batting against Bartolo Colon
0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez
0.299 — Nomar Mazara batting against Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon broke the Log5 method today. The pitchers on the Rangers, who basically regress to league average, all where shown to have a .310 hit average against Colon by the Log5 method. Colon’s parameters are a .333 hit average for this season, and .287 for the three-year period. That’s against an MLB average for position players of .232. Everybody hits today for Texas!
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.344, 0.780 — Jose Altuve batting against Cesar Valdez.
0.319, 0.755 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.309, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.353, 0.749 — Elvis Andrus batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.343, 0.743 — Adrian Beltre batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.291, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.293, 0.737 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.296, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Hammel.
0.296, 0.731 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jaime Garcia.
Pitchers have less influence on the NN, and so the usual group of leaders show up, but Colon is bad enough to bring Andrus to the top four. Altuve went three for four in a losing cause Thursday night, and he continues to post very high probabilities of getting a hit in a game. He is both the NN pick and the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vwaa2N
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