Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields
0.308 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kyle Gibson
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lackey
0.308 — Gerardo Parra batting against Nick Pivetta
0.307 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zach Davies
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada
0.300 — Justin Turner batting against Seth Lugo
0.298 — Chris Taylor batting against Seth Lugo
0.296 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kyle Gibson
0.296 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta

Nunenz is 13 for 27, .481 since joining the Red Sox. He was often in the top ten of this list, and with his hot streak and James Sheilds pitching, he is at the top.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.302, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.308, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lackey.
0.308, 0.749 — Gerardo Parra batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.309, 0.747 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields.
0.296, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.293, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.295, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.726 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.292, 0.724 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.285, 0.724 — Nolan Arenado batting against Nick Pivetta.

Once again, Altuve comes out on top in this list. Murphy and Nunez tie for the consensus pick, with Nunez getting the tie breaker.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Christopher Herrmann	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Trumbo	20
Wil Myers	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Joc Pederson	17
Arismendy Alcantara	17
Tony John Wolters	16
Neil Walker	16
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Nick Castellanos	15
Cameron Rupp	15
Matt Wieters	15
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Zimmerman	14
Domingo Santana	14
Chris Stewart	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Dexter Fowler	14
Matt Carpenter	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Joey Rickard	13
Justin Turner	13
Stephen Drew	13
Martin Prado	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Randal Grichuk	12
Avisail Garcia	12
Jay Bruce	12
Adam Engel	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Allen Cordoba	12
Brock Stassi	11
Bruce Maxwell III	11
Albert Pujols	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Salvador Perez	11
Max Kepler	11
Alex Presley	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Mike Zunino	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Eduardo Escobar	10
Tom Murphy	10
Ryon Healy	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Brad Miller	10
Ian Happ	10
Cody Bellinger	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Daniel Descalso	10
Jabari Blash	10
Anthony Rendon	10
Carlos Correa	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Zach Granite	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adam Lind	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yandy Diaz	10

Good luck!

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