Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach
0.335 — Corey Dickerson batting against Bartolo Colon
0.332 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ty Blach
0.325 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.323 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.322 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach
0.318 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Bartolo Colon
0.317 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.315 — Mallex Smith batting against Bartolo Colon
0.311 — Whit Merrifield batting against Anibal Sanchez

Rockies, and Rays, and Royals, oh my!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.769 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.332, 0.757 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ty Blach.
0.322, 0.754 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.281, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.288, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.323, 0.737 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.325, 0.737 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.317, 0.732 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.335, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.307, 0.730 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ty Blach.

Blackmon and Parra are the consensus 1-2 picks. Blach gives up a decently high batting average without too many walks. In addition, the game is at Coors so it’s not a surprise the Rockies batters rank high on this list.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Pablo Sandoval	36
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Allen Cordoba	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Chris Young	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Tyler Flowers	19
Chris Gimenez	19
Carlos Beltran	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Miguel Cabrera	17
Mark Reynolds	17
Jayson Werth	16
Zack Cozart	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Howie Kendrick	15
Juan Graterol	14
Brad Miller	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Jose Lobaton	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Lewis Brinson	13
Ender Inciarte	13
Stephen Drew	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Mike Napoli	13
Jake Marisnick	13
Luis Torrens	13
Yasmani Grandal	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Brett Gardner	12
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Tyler Moore	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Jose Altuve	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Benjamin Gamel	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Paul Goldschmidt	12
Austin Romine	11
Brock Stassi	11
Andrew Benintendi	11
Tom Murphy	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Pat Valaika	11
Tommy La Stella	11
Manuel Pina	11
Gorkys Hernandez	11
Jorge Polanco	11
Trevor Story	11
Ehire Adrianza	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Jared Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Caleb Joseph	10
Jabari Blash	10
Marcell Ozuna	10
Tyler Collins	10
Anthony Rizzo	10
Adonis Garcia	10
Alex Avila	10

Good luck!

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