Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.302 — Corey Seager batting against Adam Wainwright
0.299 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wade Miley
0.299 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland
0.296 — David Peralta batting against Jeff Locke
0.296 — Chris Owings batting against Jeff Locke
0.291 — Chris Taylor batting against Adam Wainwright
0.289 — Brandon Drury batting against Jeff Locke
0.289 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.287 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Adam Wainwright

Justin Turner against Wainwright came out at .337, but Turner remains on the disabled list, so Blackmon gets the top spot.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.316, 0.745 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.299, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.299, 0.739 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wade Miley.
0.296, 0.723 — David Peralta batting against Jeff Locke.
0.289, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.302, 0.716 — Corey Seager batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.296, 0.715 — Chris Owings batting against Jeff Locke.
0.289, 0.712 — Brandon Drury batting against Jeff Locke.
0.260, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.283, 0.698 — Gerardo Parra batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Blackmon is the unanimous pick, and it’s a good day to choose someone from the Rockies or the Diamondbacks. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Johnny Cueto	23
Cameron Rupp	22
Tyler Anderson	22
Scott Feldman	21
Brian McCann	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Chris Carter	19
Manny Machado	18
Ben Revere	18
Christopher Herrmann	18
Devin Mesoraco	18
Zack Greinke	16
Kyle Hendricks	16
Ben Zobrist	16
Trevor Plouffe	15
Greg Bird	15
Mike Foltynewicz	15
Anthony Rizzo	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Denard Span	14
Michael Wacha	14
Julio Teheran	14
Kevin Pillar	14
Ian Happ	14
Brandon McCarthy	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Robert Gsellman	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Chad Kuhl	13
Bartolo Colon	13
Drew Butera	13
Josh Bell	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Hanley Ramirez	13
Bryce Harper	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Andrew Benintendi	12
Brandon Moss	12
Leonys Martin	12
Sandy Leon	12
Jose Reyes	12
Eduardo Escobar	12
Matt Garza	12
Cody Bellinger	12
Matt Moore	11
Zack Wheeler	11
Ryan Rua	11
Craig Gentry	11
Lance Lynn	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Timothy Adleman	11
Starling Marte	11
Nicholas Franklin	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Zach Davies	10
Kennys Vargas	10
Ryan Braun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Trevor Williams	10
Jered Weaver	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Alex Wood	10
Justin Smoak	10
Stuart Turner	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Matthew Szczur	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10

Good luck!

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