Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Martin Perez
0.339 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin
0.337 — Matt Kemp batting against Robert Gsellman
0.335 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Martin Perez
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman
0.318 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman
0.313 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eddie Butler
0.311 — Leury Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin
0.310 — Jose Abreu batting against Josh Tomlin

White Sox batters get a chance to shine against Josh Tomlin, who comes into the game with a .297 BA allowed and a .308 OBP allowed. A high BA allowed with a small gap to the OBP indicates a high hit average, and Tomlin comes in at .293 for the season. Murphy against Perez is way off the scale, however. Murphy’s hit average this season is .313, Perez for his year is .275, and the league average is .228. That part of the calculation highly favors Murphy.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.776 — Daniel Murphy batting against Martin Perez.
0.313, 0.752 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eddie Butler.
0.322, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.337, 0.745 — Matt Kemp batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.320, 0.737 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.339, 0.736 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.335, 0.735 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Martin Perez.
0.318, 0.734 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.303, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Steven Matz.
0.307, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Martin Perez.

The NN is not sold on the White Sox hitters against Tomlin, but is fine with taking Matt Kemp in both ends of the double header. Murphy against Perez comes in as one of the highest probabilities of the season. Murphy is on a bit of a hot streak, while Perez allowed one of the highest batting averages in the majors.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann	33
Michael Freeman	29
Raul Mondesi	23
Jose Reyes	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jeff Mathis	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Keon Broxton	17
Raimel Tapia	16
Kurt Suzuki	16
Billy Hamilton	15
Greg Bird	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Pablo Sandoval	14
Russell Martin	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Kennys Vargas	14
Matt Davidson	14
Chris Davis	13
Carlos Gonzalez	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Michael Martinez	13
Michael Conforto	13
Brian Goodwin	12
Trevor Story	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Brandon Belt	12
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Cody Bellinger	11
Andrew Knapp	11
Starling Marte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Ian Happ	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Craig Gentry	11
Scott Van Slyke	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Deven Marrero	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Darwin Barney	10
Christian Vazquez	10
Eugenio Suarez	10
Miguel Montero	10
Boog Powell	10
Joshua Phegley	10
Ryan Braun	10
Peter Kozma	10
Michael Saunders	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stuart Turner	10
Andres Blanco	10
Devin Mesoraco	10
Max Kepler-Rozycki	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

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