Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.338 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.329 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Norris
0.310 — Aaron Judge batting against Kevin Gausman
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez
0.300 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx
0.298 — Howie Kendrick batting against Adam Wainwright
0.297 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Adam Wainwright
The Yankees have dominated the Orioles in their current series, and it looks like they are ready to dig Kevin Gausman on Sunday. Gausman allowed 90 hits in 66 innings this season for a .323 opposition BA. Castro and Gregorius are successful hackers. This year, they are hitting for a high average with few walks. That’s the type of hitter you expect to extend a streak.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.300, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.312, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Norris.
0.306, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.338, 0.744 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.329, 0.734 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.294, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.308, 0.725 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.300, 0.724 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292, 0.717 — Dee Gordon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jesse Hahn.
Murphy rises to the top due to his better 2017 hit average (.314) and his better three-year weighted hit average (.303). Bibens-Dirkx prevented hits well in his rookie year, but with regression he is still close to a league average pitcher. Castro, Gregorious, and Gausman have high hit averages short term, but not long term, so those two Yankees batters drop a bit. Judge completely falls off the list. Bogaerts and Castro tie for the consensus pick, however.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2rjnPEN
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