Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.347 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Gerrit Cole
0.332 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clayton Richard
0.330 — Matt Kemp batting against Joe Ross
0.329 — Zack Cozart batting against Clayton Richard
0.320 — Jose Peraza batting against Clayton Richard
0.318 — Joey Votto batting against Clayton Richard
0.317 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gerrit Cole
0.316 — Starlin Castro batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.316 — Didi Gregorius batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Ross

It looks like a good night to pick a Reds hitter or maybe one from the Rockies. It’s tough to pick against Cole, as if he’s on he can be tough. This season, however, he is allowing a relatively high BA and a low OBP, which makes him a good candidate for allowing a batter to extend a streak. Blackmon bats lead-off, which gives him a few more plate appearances, and the more PA, the more chances for a hit.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.347, 0.764 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.311, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.308, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.330, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Joe Ross.
0.317, 0.737 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.316, 0.736 — Starlin Castro batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.316, 0.734 — Didi Gregorius batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.314, 0.731 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Ross.
0.332, 0.731 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clayton Richard.
0.291, 0.729 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ben Lively.

Blackmon is the unanimous pick. On a note unrelated to hit streaks, notice that the Yankees have a very strong middle infield offensively. They are getting great numbers from centerfield, and good production when Gary Sanchez catches. Strong up the middle is the sign of a very good team, and that’s the Yankees this year.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Carlos Gonzalez	21
Jeff Mathis	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Kurt Suzuki	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Russell Martin	18
Darwin Barney	17
Zack Cozart	17
Michael Saunders	15
Greg Bird	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Jorge Bonifacio	14
Lucas Duda	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Eric Sogard	14
Martin Maldonado	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ian Happ	13
Cameron Rupp	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Javier Baez	13
Jett Bandy	13
Max Moroff	12
Hunter Renfroe	12
Taylor Motter	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Matt Olson	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Ehire Adrianza	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Craig Gentry	11
Omar Narvaez	11
Jurickson Profar	11
Starling Marte	11
Stuart Turner	10
Peter Kozma	10
Derek Norris	10
Tyler Collins	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Deven Marrero	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Carlos Beltran	10
Rob Refsnyder	10
Boog Powell	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Steven Souza	10
Brett Gardner	10
Xander Bogaerts	10
Chris Taylor	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Ryan Braun	10
Greg Garcia	10

Good luck!

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