Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. Today I added a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.328 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Mengden
0.316 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.313 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.313 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Daniel Mengden
0.312 — Matt Kemp batting against Scott Feldman
0.311 — Josh Harrison batting against Robert Gsellman
0.306 — Tim Anderson batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.303 — Wilmer Flores batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.302 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel
Garcia turns 26 in a few days. He is hitting far and above his previous averages, so in a system that weights his three-year and current year hit averages evenly, he does very well. He is also helped by walking very little, so his .367 OBP is almost entirely hits, which is a very good way to advance hit streaks. His 2017 hit averages stands at .304, his three-year weighted hit average is .250.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.325, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.316, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.287, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.312, 0.736 — Matt Kemp batting against Scott Feldman.
0.328, 0.728 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.283, 0.725 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.313, 0.723 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.313, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.302, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel.
0.291, 0.721 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.311, 0.721 — Josh Harrison batting against Robert Gsellman.
Murphy rises to the top once again, and he is the consensus pick as well. With Garcia dropping to fifth place, you can see one of the jobs of the NN is to moderate the hotness of the player (current season numbers) against their longer-term average. Murphy’s 2017 hit average is .308, his three-year weighted average is .301. Garcia, however, faces a pitcher more likely to give up a hit. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Through 60 picks this season, the NN was right 45 times, exactly 75%.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sAuviK
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