Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.333 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez
0.316 — Starlin Castro batting against Marcus Stroman
0.312 — Daniel Murphy batting against Sonny Gray
0.311 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Tillman
0.306 — Chris Taylor batting against Zach Davies
0.302 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Davies
0.298 — Carlos Correa batting against Martin Perez
0.295 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Zach Davies
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Marcus Stroman
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jarred Cosart
0.294 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Sonny Gray
A good group of regulars make up the top four. If you are looking to pick multiple players on a team, the Dodgers against Zach Davies appear to be the best bet.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.333, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.312, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Sonny Gray.
0.311, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Tillman.
0.294, 0.732 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.316, 0.731 — Starlin Castro batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.285, 0.718 — Matt Kemp batting against Amir Garrett.
0.282, 0.712 — David Peralta batting against Vance Worley.
0.302, 0.712 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Davies.
0.294, 0.710 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Sonny Gray.
0.273, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.273, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
Altuve is the unanimous first choice, as Perez allows a high hit average this season.
Whit Merrifield currently holds the longest hit streak in the majors, 18 games. Whit is a perfectly good pick. He came to the majors late, so he is playing in his prime in a situation in which he needs to hit to keep a job in the majors. Because he spent so little time in the majors, his hit averages are still being heavily regressed to the mean, which right now is .228. If he keeps hitting like this, however, we should start to see him move up in the rankings.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit. I eliminated pitchers:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2rpffHE
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