Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.346 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin
0.337 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.327 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.325 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon
0.322 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin
0.318 — Tyler Flowers batting against Zach Eflin
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.306 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.301 — Aaron Altherr batting against Bartolo Colon

If you want a hit, pretty much pick anyone from the game between the Phillies and the Braves. There is a very limited schedule this Monday, which is why you see an unusual list of players.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.346, 0.750 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.327, 0.739 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin.
0.322, 0.736 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin.
0.337, 0.733 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.314, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.292, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Eddie Butler.
0.325, 0.719 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318, 0.718 — Tyler Flowers batting against Zach Eflin.
0.289, 0.718 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eddie Butler.
0.296, 0.718 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Eddie Butler.

Daniel Murphy rising to the top of the pack on a day with a limited schedule is no surprise. Matt Kemp is the consensus pick, however.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Christopher Herrmann	28
Ben Zobrist	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Trevor Plouffe	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Scooter Gennett	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Jose Reyes	18
Bryce Harper	17
Logan Forsythe	17
Asdrubal Cabrera	17
Greg Bird	15
Jett Bandy	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Alex Bregman	14
Jeff Mathis	13
Chris Owings	13
Guillermo Heredia	13
Adam Jones	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Corey Seager	13
Michael Martinez	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Jared W. Hoying	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Robbie Grossman	11
Matt Carpenter	11
Craig Gentry	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Mark Canha	11
Robinson Cano	10
Jose Bautista	10
Alcides Escobar	10
Kennys Vargas	10
Kris Bryant	10
Yangervis Solarte	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Ryan Braun	10
Franklin Gutierrez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Ryan Schimpf	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stuart Turner	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10

Good luck!

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