Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka
0.322 — Josh Harrison batting against Kevin Gausman
0.320 — Matt Kemp batting against Aaron Nola
0.315 — Zack Cozart batting against Adam Wainwright
0.307 — Ender Inciarte batting against Aaron Nola
0.306 — Adam Frazier batting against Kevin Gausman
0.304 — Brandon Phillips batting against Aaron Nola
0.302 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jose Quintana
0.297 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon McCarthy
0.294 — Welington Castillo batting against Ivan Nova

Bogaerts versus Tanaka is a tough choice. While Tanaka pitched poorly this season, he pitched well enough in a number of games, including a shutout against the Red Sox, that he might deter the pick. Basically, Tanaka is a high varience pitcher, and you don’t want to pick against him on a good night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.297, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.325, 0.744 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.289, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Jakob Junis.
0.320, 0.735 — Matt Kemp batting against Aaron Nola.
0.322, 0.729 — Josh Harrison batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.307, 0.729 — Ender Inciarte batting against Aaron Nola.
0.304, 0.729 — Brandon Phillips batting against Aaron Nola.
0.302, 0.724 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jose Quintana.
0.315, 0.722 — Zack Cozart batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.290, 0.722 — Buster Posey batting against Chase Anderson.

Once again, Daniel Murphy bubbles to the top of the NN list, but Bogaerts finishes as the consensus pick. Also note that the 2017 season is starting to figure in more to the calculation, as batters accumulate enough PA to stop the regression (I use 200 PA for the season). Matt Kemp, with a high hit average of .312 is moving up the list, as is Corey Dickerson with a .314 HA for 2017. Murphy is the only player over .300 in both the current year and the weighted three year averages.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Christopher Herrmann	28
Trevor Plouffe	26
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Logan Forsythe	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Jose Reyes	18
Asdrubal Cabrera	17
Greg Bird	15
Jett Bandy	15
Mark Canha	14
Franklin Gutierrez	14
Jose Bautista	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Raimel Tapia	13
Matt Kemp	13
Guillermo Heredia	13
Jeff Mathis	13
Adam Jones	13
Chris Owings	13
Michael Martinez	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Jared W. Hoying	12
Craig Gentry	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Robbie Grossman	11
Starling Marte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Kennys Vargas	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Ryan Braun	10
Ryan Schimpf	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Robinson Cano	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Yangervis Solarte	10
Tyler Collins	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Stuart Turner	10
Rio Ruiz	10

Good luck!

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