Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.319 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies
0.315 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner
0.313 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.312 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies
0.305 — Ryon Healy batting against Alexander Cobb
0.304 — Brandon Drury batting against Zach Davies
0.304 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.304 — Christian Vazquez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.302 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann is getting hit hard this season, both for average and for power. Bogaerts continues to produce great offensive numbers for a shotstop.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.340, 0.756 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.319, 0.732 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies.
0.289, 0.724 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Harvey.
0.296, 0.722 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Harvey.
0.305, 0.722 — Ryon Healy batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.281, 0.720 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287, 0.720 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313, 0.719 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.304, 0.719 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.302, 0.719 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Glasnow.

Murphy edges out Bogaerts for the top slot, as Murphy’s one and three-year numbers are better than Bogaerts’s marks, even though Zimmermann has much worse numbers than Cashner. The consensus pick is Bogaerts. Note that tied at the end of the top ten are three Marlins players. They get their in different ways, however, as Ozuna owns a much better one year than three year hit average, Gordon is much better on the three year scale, and Realmuto is pretty even.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann	31
Michael Freeman	29
Logan Forsythe	28
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jose Reyes	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matthew Szczur	19
Rio Ruiz	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Jeff Mathis	17
Keon Broxton	17
Raimel Tapia	15
Greg Bird	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Franklin Gutierrez	14
Kennys Vargas	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Steven Souza	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Adam Frazier	12
Michael Martinez	12
Kurt Suzuki	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Ryan Hanigan	11
Starling Marte	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Craig Gentry	11
Billy Hamilton	11
Jesus Sucre	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Peter Kozma	10
Devin Mesoraco	10
Joshua Phegley	10
Tyler Collins	10
Andres Blanco	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Russell Martin	10
Darwin Barney	10
Pablo Sandoval	10
Boog Powell	10
Matt Wieters	10
Eric Hosmer	10
Christian Vazquez	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Stuart Turner	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Matt Davidson	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Deven Marrero	10
Ryan Braun	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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