Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.358 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.347 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.347 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard
0.344 — Ryan Braun batting against Homer Bailey
0.338 — Orlando Arcia batting against Homer Bailey
0.335 — Manuel Pina batting against Homer Bailey
0.332 — Travis Shaw batting against Homer Bailey
0.330 — Hernan Perez batting against Homer Bailey
0.320 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.313 — Eric Sogard batting against Homer Bailey
How did Jean Segura sneak into the group without facing Clayton Richard or Homer Bailey? Richard allowed high batting averages his last three seasons in the majors, and with a three-year weighted hit average one of the components, he presents a target rich environment for the Dodgers lineup. Bailey’s three-year weighted hit average is still getting regressed to the mean, or the predicted hit averages against him might even be higher. It other words, we might be underestimating the Brewers in this case.
Chris Taylor! He did a great job getting on base throughout his minor league career, but never quite hit at the MLB level. The Mariners traded him for Zach Lee, whom they let go to the Padres on waivers. Taylor is seasonal age 26, right in his prime, and now the ability he showed in the minors is coming through in the majors. Yes, he was blocked in Seattle by Robinson Cano, but this was a horrible trade for the Mariners.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.358, 0.756 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285, 0.756 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.347, 0.752 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.302, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton.
0.347, 0.744 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard.
0.320, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.306, 0.743 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.344, 0.743 — Ryan Braun batting against Homer Bailey.
0.291, 0.737 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jose Urena.
0.283, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.
Turner is the unanimous choice for a hit tonight, with Corey Seager the consensus second choice. Cole Hamels is a very good at preventing hits, which gives you an idea of how well Altuve is batting this season. Turner is 7 for 14 career against Richard with a home runs, a walk, a HBP, and a strikeout. The last is significant, since putting the ball in play is rather important if a batter wants to collect a hit.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wOJcku
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