Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.360 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Pruitt
0.343 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley
0.329 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley
0.321 — Jose Ramirez batting against Rick Porcello
0.319 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.314 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Gossett
0.313 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Flexen
0.306 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Vance Worley
0.305 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Austin Pruitt
0.305 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann
Altuve had a rare 0 for 4 Tuesday night, so he’s probably due. 
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.360, 0.786 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.343, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley.
0.308, 0.748 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Flexen.
0.321, 0.745 — Jose Ramirez batting against Rick Porcello.
0.299, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Flexen.
0.296, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.329, 0.739 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley.
0.291, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Flexen.
0.297, 0.736 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.314, 0.734 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Gossett.
There is perfect agreement at the very top of the list. Eduardo Nunez get pulled in by the NN, and he is on a tear since joining the Red Sox, 11 for 22 with four doubles and two home runs. He went three for five Tuesday night in Boston’s wild win over Cleveland, as the Indians lose on a wild pitch strikeout that should have ended the game, and instead led to a three-run homer by Christian Vazquez to ice the win.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
That’s an impressive streak by Jaso.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tYZxSI
No comments:
Post a Comment