Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz
0.337 — Chris Taylor batting against Steven Matz
0.332 — Corey Seager batting against Steven Matz
0.331 — Josh Harrison batting against Clayton Richard
0.331 — Adam Frazier batting against Clayton Richard
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman
0.327 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin
0.324 — Thomas Pham batting against Homer Bailey
0.323 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Clayton Richard
0.322 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey

Looks like the Dodgers are going to the Matz today. Matz allows a .349 OBP, but most of that comes from hits, so he is a good pitcher for extending a hitting streak.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.328, 0.773 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.311, 0.755 — Gerardo Parra batting against Aaron Nola.
0.306, 0.746 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.294, 0.741 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Aaron Nola.
0.340, 0.741 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz.
0.287, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jon Lester.
0.327, 0.740 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.332, 0.740 — Corey Seager batting against Steven Matz.
0.290, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Aaron Nola.
0.337, 0.737 — Chris Taylor batting against Steven Matz.

Altuve comes out on top once again, even though he stopped the NN streak last night. Justin Turner is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Christopher Herrmann	23
Joc Pederson	20
Mark Trumbo	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Matt Carpenter	18
Jorge Soler	18
Arismendy Alcantara	17
Tony John Wolters	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Cameron Rupp	15
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Dexter Fowler	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Daniel Descalso	14
Ryon Healy	14
Chris Stewart	14
Anthony Rendon	14
Adam Lind	14
Max Kepler	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lewis Brinson	13
Scooter Gennett	13
Allen Cordoba	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Stephen Drew	13
Eric Sogard	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Randal Grichuk	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Martin Prado	12
Chris Davis	12
Jay Bruce	12
Avisail Garcia	12
Justin Smoak	12
Martin Maldonado	12
Mike Zunino	11
Manuel Pina	11
Leury Garcia	11
Starling Marte	11
Bruce Maxwell III	11
Salvador Perez	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Brian Goodwin	11
Brock Stassi	11
Ian Happ	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Jose Lobaton	11
Alex Presley	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Matthew Adams	10
Jabari Blash	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Austin Romine	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Zach Granite	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Corey Dickerson	10
Carlos Correa	10
Victor Martinez	10
Jose Alberto Martinez	10
Tommy Joseph	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Tom Murphy	10

Good luck!

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