Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.297 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.291 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brent Suter.
0.279 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.278 — Victor Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.278 — Odubel Herrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.275 — Zack Cozart batting against Martin Perez.
0.274 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.274 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.273 — Paul DeJong batting against Brent Suter.

This is not the usual cast of hitters making the top ten. Simmons owns a .375 OBP this season, built on 17 hits and one walk. Ozuna is hot, and on a bit of a streak. Josh Tomlin gets hit, and walks very few people.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.261, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.297, 0.702 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.272, 0.697 — Elvis Andrus batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.279, 0.697 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283, 0.696 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brent Suter.
0.268, 0.695 — Dee Gordon batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.266, 0.693 — Jean Segura batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.291, 0.691 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.255, 0.690 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.269, 0.688 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.

Altuve doesn’t make the Log5 list, but pops to the top here. The Log5 program weighs the three year and current year averages equally, while the NN gives the three-season average more weight. Andrelton Simmons is the consensus first pick, however, while Hosmer and Ozuna the second choices.

Note, also, that the probabilities of a hit in the game are low tonight, just .709 for Altuve. That means there is a lot of good pitching this evening.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2HbeYAU