Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.274 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
0.273 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Sal Romano.
0.272 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello.
0.270 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.269 — Buster Posey batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.267 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Rick Porcello.
0.265 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.262 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.262 — Paul DeJong batting against Sal Romano.
0.262 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chris Stratton.

The veteran Kendrick is the classic hitter whose OBP comes mostly from his batting average. At seasonal age 34, he continues to hit well. He does not start every game, so you will need to check the lineups before you lock in that pick.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.262, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.265, 0.691 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.274, 0.691 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
0.273, 0.689 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Sal Romano.
0.269, 0.688 — Buster Posey batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.272, 0.686 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello.
0.270, 0.684 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.262, 0.680 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chris Stratton.
0.267, 0.679 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Rick Porcello.
0.251, 0.679 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jose Berrios.

Blackmon pops to the top of the NN list, but Kendrick remains the consensus pick. Blackmon is not on the disabled list, but he is injured. LeMahieu and Ozuna may be the double down pair of the day if you want to pick early.

Note, too, that it’s a low probability day. Usually the top player on the NN list comes in over .700. Blackmon is at .692. There are a small number of games and some good pitchers going today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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