Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.288 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.288 — Avisail Garcia batting against Phil Hughes.
0.287 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.285 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Tillman.
0.285 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ty Blach.
0.283 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes.
0.280 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.278 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Zach Davies.
0.277 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Steven Matz.
0.277 — Willson Contreras batting against Anibal Sanchez.

Tillman got hit hard in 2017, and that continued into 2018. Hughes is known for not walking batters. That tends to soften the high batting averages he allows, but it also helps batters extend hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.280, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.288, 0.707 — Avisail Garcia batting against Phil Hughes.
0.288, 0.706 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.270, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283, 0.698 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes.
0.287, 0.698 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.285, 0.697 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ty Blach.
0.267, 0.696 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.266, 0.693 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.258, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tanner Roark.
0.277, 0.691 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Steven Matz.

Altuve jumps to the top of the NN list. He is six for 20 career against Hamels with three strikeouts. Garcia is three for 17 against Hughes with five K. Nunez is three for 8 against Tillman with three K. Nunez and Garcia are tied for the consensus first choice.

Blackmon is not on the disabled list, but he also has not played in a few games.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2qqHepK