Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.308 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.306 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303 — Dee Gordon batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.289 — Austin Jackson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287 — Joe Panik batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Joe Mauer batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.281 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.278 — Jed Lowrie batting against Marco Gonzalez.

A couple on this list make the top hit streaks leader board as well. Dee Gordon owns an eleven-game streak, and Joe Mauer is at ten games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.308, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.303, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.306, 0.716 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.251, 0.704 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.294, 0.699 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.270, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.285, 0.697 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289, 0.694 — Austin Jackson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.281, 0.691 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.282, 0.687 — Joe Mauer batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.

Posey is off to a hot start, and had a long hit streak end Friday night. Segura and Gordon would be a good double down, as they set the table for the Mariners, so they should get the most plate appearances in the game. Graveman doesn’t walk many, and allows a high number of hits, a good pitcher for extending streaks. Segura and Gordon are also the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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