Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.293 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286 — Starlin Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285 — Josh Reddick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.285 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.284 — Carlos Correa batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.277 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey.
0.275 — Miguel Rojas batting against Ivan Nova.
0.275 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.271 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.271 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.

Colon is off to a good start this year, allowing a low BA and a low OBP. If a player gets on base against him, it is much more likely to be via a hit. His regressed hit average for 2018 is .223, while his three-year average stands at .286. That high three-year number is driving him to the top. The same for Gurriel, who just came off the disabled list. Altuve is 8 for 20 against Colon in their careers. It’s also the Sunday night game, so if you pick a player from this game and he is not in the starting lineup, you’ll need to scramble for a replacement. Given that the Rangers are facing Justin Verlander, you probably don’t want anyone from that side of the game.

Anthony Rendon is not on the disabled list, but he is injured.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.321, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.293, 0.712 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.269, 0.704 — Jean Segura batting against Sean Manaea.
0.267, 0.701 — Dee Gordon batting against Sean Manaea.
0.286, 0.701 — Starlin Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.699 — Josh Reddick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.285, 0.698 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.277, 0.698 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey.
0.284, 0.694 — Carlos Correa batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.275, 0.691 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.

It’s a similar list, except Jean Segura and Dee Gordon move on to the list in a high spot. Altuve and Gurriel are agreed 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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