Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Wright
0.286 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kendall Graveman
0.283 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Josh Tomlin
0.275 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey
0.273 — Zack Cozart batting against Josh Tomlin
0.273 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kendall Graveman
0.272 — Eric Hosmer batting against Kyle Freeland
0.268 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey
0.268 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jon Lester
0.266 — Mike Trout batting against Josh Tomlin
0.266 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach

Altuve continues to top the list, and so far so good. He picked up hits the first three days running the program. He faces Mike Wright today, who in parts of three seasons owns a 5.86 ERA, and allowed 159 hits in 144 1/3 innings. Twenty six of those hits went for home runs. Note that Andrus is 7 for 20 against Graveman career, with no strikeouts.

Also note that now that the season is well underway, current hit streaks can be found at the Day by Day Database. That only shows in-season streaks of at least five games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.288, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Wright.
0.286, 0.703 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.263, 0.696 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyson Ross.
0.266, 0.693 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach.
0.283, 0.693 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.265, 0.692 — Jean Segura batting against Ty Blach.
0.265, 0.690 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jose Urena.
0.272, 0.689 — Eric Hosmer batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273, 0.686 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.261, 0.684 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jack Flaherty.

Again, the two systems agree 1-2, but Charlie Blackmon gets pulled into the top ten in third place. At this point in the season, the NN depends more on the 2016-2018 numbers, but with a hot start, Blackmon is near the top of the 2018 numbers as well. Note that someone like Nick Ahmed, also off to a hot start, is pulled down by his poor long-term performance. His probability of a hit today is .626 (the Mazda probability). Of course, facing Clayton Kershaw doesn’t help.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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