Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Perdomo
0.292 — Carlos Correa batting against Luis Perdomo
0.288 — Josh Reddick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.283 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Gossett
0.277 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman
0.275 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy
0.270 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Matt Moore
0.270 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.268 — Zack Cozart batting against Daniel Gossett
0.266 — Ender Inciarte batting against German Marquez
0.266 — Freddie Freeman batting against German Marquez

Jose Altuve and teammates pop back to the top of the list. Pitcher Luis Perdomo’s career pretty much coincides with my use of the Beat the Streak programs, and when he pitches, his opponents are always near the top of the list. For his career, opponents are hitting .298/.362/.455 against him. Today he faces the Astros, a team that can pound good pitchers, so four Astros make the top ten list for Log5.

Altuve’s .319 predicted hit average is huge. Remember, that’s hits/(all plate appearances). There are players that don’t have a career .319 OBP!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.275, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292, 0.700 — Carlos Correa batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288, 0.699 — Josh Reddick batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.265, 0.694 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283, 0.689 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.266, 0.687 — Ender Inciarte batting against German Marquez.
0.277, 0.686 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.266, 0.680 — Freddie Freeman batting against German Marquez.
0.250, 0.674 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Williams.
0.248, 0.674 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Estrada.
0.270, 0.674 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Matt Moore.

The NN agrees with Log5 that Altuve versus Perdomo is a match made in heaven for a hit. Carlos Correa is the consensus second choice. The weather report for the Rockies game is snow with the temperature around 273 degrees Kelvin. They might not play.

On top of everything else, Altuve owns a six-game hit streak. He’s hitting .444 during that stretch, striking out once in 27 AB.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2EpT9rH