Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.322 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.312 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jameson Taillon
0.308 — Zack Cozart batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo
0.303 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rick Porcello
0.301 — Jose Peraza batting against Luis Perdomo
0.298 — Elvis Andrus batting against Joe Musgrove
0.297 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jerad Eickhoff

There are a number of the usual characters on the list, even with an abbreviated schedule. Elvis Andrus currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors, and Blackmon is at nine games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.311, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.322, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.312, 0.726 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.720 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.301, 0.717 — Jose Peraza batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.307, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294, 0.716 — Avisail Garcia batting against Wade Miley.
0.281, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.283, 0.716 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

Murphy is the unanimous pick. Andrus is just off the list with a .714 probability of getting a hit in the game.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jeff Mathis	20
Kurt Suzuki	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Russell Martin	18
Darwin Barney	17
Carlos Gonzalez	17
Trevor Story	16
Max Kepler-Rozycki	16
Michael Saunders	15
Greg Bird	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Jorge Bonifacio	14
Eric Sogard	14
Zack Cozart	14
Pablo Sandoval	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Jett Bandy	13
Cameron Rupp	13
Mark Trumbo	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Ian Happ	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Nolan Fontana	12
Taylor Motter	12
Leonys Martin	12
Pat Valaika	12
Starling Marte	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Omar Narvaez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kevan Smith	11
Jurickson Profar	11
Matt Olson	11
Craig Gentry	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Steven Souza	10
Rob Refsnyder	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Trea Turner	10
Derek Norris	10
Javier Baez	10
Boog Powell	10
Lucas Duda	10
Chris Taylor	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Stuart Turner	10
Tyler Collins	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Deven Marrero	10
Ryan Braun	10
Greg Garcia	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Peter Kozma	10

Cozart has a high probability of getting a hit today, and if you believe in such things, he’s due.

Good luck!

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