Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl
0.315 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Jason Hammel
0.301 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Julio Teheran
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl
0.293 — Josh Harrison batting against German Marquez
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.291 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel
0.289 — Eric Hosmer batting against Johnny Cueto
0.288 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Matt Garza
0.288 — Matt Kemp batting against Tanner Roark

This list has the usual suspects. Hosmer is hitting for a high average, and a not too high an OBP, so he’s creeping onto this list. Unlike Murphy, he is just doing this for the current year.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.321, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.302, 0.729 — Buster Posey batting against Jason Hammel.
0.284, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.296, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.301, 0.721 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Julio Teheran.
0.284, 0.720 — Didi Gregorius batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.285, 0.718 — Justin Turner batting against Corey Kluber.
0.291, 0.717 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.

Zimmerman’s hit average for 2017 stands at .342, but he is pulled down by a .253 weighted three-year average of .253. Justin Turner is off the disabled list, and hit in all four games he played. He returns to the top ten. Murphy and Blackmon tie for the consensus pick. Murphy is 8 for 22 against Teheran, with a .364/.517/.682 slash line. Blackmon has not faced Chad Kuhl.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Carlos Gonzalez	25
Jeff Mathis	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kurt Suzuki	20
Michael Saunders	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Zack Cozart	17
Darwin Barney	17
Jett Bandy	17
Hunter Renfroe	16
Jurickson Profar	15
Omar Narvaez	15
Greg Bird	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Albert Pujols	13
Eric Thames	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Marwin Gonzalez	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Ryan Goins	12
Leonys Martin	12
Jose Ramirez	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Matt Holliday	12
Victor Martinez	12
Ehire Adrianza	12
Jose Bautista	12
Max Moroff	12
Cliff Pennington	11
Starling Marte	11
Jedd Gyorko	11
Matt Olson	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Deven Marrero	11
Craig Gentry	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Peter Kozma	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Jose Altuve	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Ryan Braun	10
Freddy Galvis	10
Boog Powell	10
Joc Pederson	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Stuart Turner	10
Brandon Crawford	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Beltran	10
Rob Refsnyder	10

Good luck!

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